What A Second Trump Presidency Means for the US, India and the World : Amb Meera Shankar Explains

2 weeks ago 16

What does the second Trump presidency mean for America, India and the world?: Meera Shankar, former Ambassador to the US, gives her answer to Karan Thapar for The Wire. .......................................... Meera Shankar, one of India’s best-known former Ambassadors to the United States, says Trump will be transactional and look for deals in his relationship with India but the strategic importance of the country to the United States will remain unaltered and there are unlikely to be substantial changes in the Indo-US relationship. However, one area where there will be a difference is Trump will not pay attention, as the Biden Administration did, to the India’s treatment of Muslims or its democratic backsliding. But the Pannun issue which is now with the US Courts and the Department of Justice, will continue to work its way through the American system as it is presently doing. Also Mrs. Shankar says there will be “less support for the Khalistan issue”. Trump is likely to be an even more powerful President than he was the first time round because now he’s won the popular vote in addition to the Electoral College and the Republicans have regained control of the Senate as well as, it seems, retaining the House. This means there will be few checks on his power and the Senate will accept his nominations, including for the Supreme Court, without demur. This 30-minute interview was recorded at 4.00 p.m. today (6/11) as details of the election outcome in America were becoming fully known. To help you, I will give you the list of questions put to Mrs. Shankar. That will explain the range of issues covered in the interview. The questions may not have been always followed in the order they are listed and, secondly, there were additional questions asked. Here are the questions: 1) Donald Trump has made history by becoming only the second US President after Grover Cleveland to win back the presidency after losing it and he seems to have done it far more comfortably than the polls predicted. He’s won the popular vote which he didn’t win in 2016. In contrast, Kamala Harris seems to under-performed compared to Biden in both blue and red colour states. So are you surprised by the result? 2) Not only has Trump won the presidency but the Republicans have won the Senate and retained the House. That’s a clean sweep. So how powerful a President is Donald Trump going to be? Two of his former colleagues, John Kelly and Mark Milley, have called him a fascist. Are we likely to see that side of him more clearly? 3) One of the big factors that’s swung in Trump’s favour, perhaps even more than immigration, is the economy. But inflation is at 2.1%, America’s GDP is the fastest growing of any of the G7 countries and the job situation is more comfortable than it’s been for decades. So why has the economy worked in his favour and gone against Kamala Harris in such a big way? 4) He’s threatened a mass deportation of people considered illegal aliens. By some counts that could be 11 million people. That would be huge if it happens. How likely is it? 5) And then there’s Project 25, a document of policies prepared by a right-leaning think-tank, which talks of replacing the top tier of Washington’s bureaucracy with Trump loyalists, dismantling the department of justice, energy, education, the FBI and the Federal Reserve. His campaign distanced itself from Project 25 but if it were to be implemented what would that amount to? 6) Let’s come to the impact Trump could have on the world. He’s talked of imposing a 20% tariff on all imports and far higher tariffs on Chinese exports. Presumably that will provoke retaliation. Could we end up perilously close to a trade war? 7) It’s widely expected that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and seriously weaken NATO by undermining the Article 5 guarantee. If that happens what will be the international impact? 8) Given what we know of his position on the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin must be cheering and Zelensky in tears. Is this the end of Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion or can support from Europe make up for Trump withdrawing American backing? 9) What is the impact Trump will have on the Israel-Gaza war and the situation in the Middle East? As the author of the Abraham Accords will he temper his pro-Israeli and pro-Netanyahu position with greater understanding of Arab sentiment? Or will Netanyahu have carte blanche to do what he wants to Hamas, Hezbollah as well as Iran? Join The Wire's Youtube Membership and get exclusive content, member-only emojis, live interaction with The Wire's founders, editors and reporters and much more. Memberships to The Wire Crew start at Rs 89/month. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChWtJey46brNr7qHQpN6KLQ/join

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