TN and Kerala exit polls: Believable or not?

TN and Kerala exit polls: Believable or not? | South Central

1 month ago 88

In the first part of this week’s South Central, hosts Dhanya Rajendran and Pooja Prasanna discuss the Kerala and Tamil Nadu exit polls and the recent political developments in both states. They are joined by TNM’s Tamil Nadu bureau chief Shabbir Ahmed, Kerala bureau chief Haritha John, and senior reporter Azeefa Fathima. Dhanya first recalls the various exit polls, which came on April 29. She particularly mentions the AXIS My India exit polls, which say that the AIADMK will be pushed to the third position, after DMK and TVK. In Kerala, she cites how the exit polls predict a comeback for the UDF. Shabbir says that we must take exit polls with a pinch of salt. “In 2016, except C Voter, all others said one thing in Tamil Nadu, but the opposite happened. But with AXIS, I feel that it has captured the mood of the state. The competition was between DMK and TVK. A couple of other polls also said the same. Initially, all opinion polls said TVK would not win double-digit seats. But exit polls say this will happen. This means Vijay has the power to convert seats in Tamil Nadu. Vijay is a household name; his popularity is huge. What was disappointing was how the Dravidian parties were handling TVK. They underestimated the party, and that became TVK’s strength,” he says. Dhanya says that what will make or break it for Vijay will be around 20 per cent. “I think TVK peaked, especially with Vijay’s last speech. After polls, several journalists and strategists said this 20 could move up to even 30 per cent. Which means he would eat into DMK, AIADMK, NTK and everyone else’s vote shares,” she adds. She also says that strategists pointed out two things. “If Vijay has to crack 35 percent, he has to do well across. But according to AXIS, he is mainly only doing well in two regions. Even if Vijay does 30 or 35 percent, the real question is how a first-time party is polling such a remarkable share of votes. This should lead the other parties to ask what went wrong,” she adds. Pooja points out that the fatigue with existing parties could also be a major contributor here. “With TVK, what struck me was that it looked like a script given to people as to how Vijay, with a 200 crore income yearly, left that and came to serve people,” she says. “The need for change and Vijay’s leaving a lucrative career is what motivated people, in my experience. But there is no concrete answer to what kind of change he would bring. The promise of his protecting women was also huge. I felt this could also be a shadow of his films, how he protects women on screen or goes up against the big bad guys,” says Azeefa. “While NCRB data says crimes have come down, and seizures have been less with respect to narcotics, the AIADMK’s narrative about the drug and crime problem could also have helped Vijay,” says Pooja. Shabbir says that the principal Opposition, AIADMK, did not take these issues up. “The DMK was on an offensive, unbothered about these issues, which may have helped Vijay to pick on them and gain some momentum. The manner in which Vijay conducted campaigns and his last two days of speeches were well-executed. Some of the TVK cadres I spoke to said they wanted that last-minute speech at the Nananam grounds. The other parties did not anticipate this. He went after the BJP, AIADMK and others in this speech, which impacted voters. He has also been able to create a buzz among even the so-called apolitical young voters and students,” he points out. Haritha says that in coastal regions, TVK appears to be a perfect alternative. “They are tired of AIADMK because of the BJP alliance, and DMK has triggered fatigue as well. The youngsters have been supporting Vijay, leading to a change in the scenario for the elders of their families as well. Even religious leaders say that Vijay, being a Christian, is desirable in the coastal areas like Kanyakumari. These constituencies have long been wanting a candidate from their community,” she adds. In Kerala, as exit polls predict a comeback for the UDF, the local polls do suggest that some big names may be on shaky grounds. 0:00 - Introduction 03:58 - Headlines 14:04 - Kerala & Tamil Nadu exit polls 51:25 - India slips in Press Freedom Index 1:18:15 - Recommendations Subscribe to Newslaundry: https://rzp.io/rzp/nlsm Join us on WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va61PEo0QeacOqU9vr2k Download the accessible Newslaundry app: https://www.newslaundry.com/download-app Follow and engage with us on social media: Facebook: https://facebook.com/newslaundry Twitter: https://twitter.com/newslaundry Instagram: https://instagram.com/newslaundry

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