Donald Trump Can Declare Victory With the Iranian Regime Surviving but How Long Can It Last?

3 months ago 36

Donald Trump can declare victory with the Iranian regime surviving but how long can it last?: Sir Robin Niblett, former Director, Chatham House, to Karan Thapar for The Wire. ......................................... Sir Robin Niblett, who served for 15 years as Director and CEO of Chatham House from 2007 till 2022 and will take over as Warden of New College Oxford in September 2026, says he believes that Donald Trump can declare victory in the Middle East war even with the Iranian regime surviving but asks how long can the regime survive after that. Sir Robin also believes that the Gulf states will take a big hit and their reputation as safe havens where people want to invest is likely to be damaged. In an interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Sir Robin said about Trump declaring victory with the regime surviving: “I think Donald Trump can declare victory with the regime surviving. Mainly because those who support him believe what he tells them. Literally. And there will be no denying the destruction to the Iranian military and to its structural military industrial capability, including further destruction to its nuclear facilities … these will be sizeable in difference to the June ‘obliteration’ of the nuclear military capability … (but) let’s wait and see what happens in Iran even if this Islamic regime is in power after an agreement, if there is an agreement. It may not be in power in a year’s time. And then Donald Trump will say I told you so. That’s why I did it. I managed to get rid of them after all. It took a bit of time but I pushed and the domino fell later. Sir Robin explained this further when he said: “I think he feels and others around him feel that they have inflicted enough damage to, at the very least, be able to declare a victory but the victory has to be wrapped up in an agreement with the other side. It can’t simply be declared unilaterally and then be denied by the Iranian side. Most importantly, that denial will be proven not simply by the survival of the Iranian regime but the fact that they will be determining who and which ships do and do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So I think he’s trying to get a deal which at a minimum makes it looks like the military objectives have been achieved and the Strait of Hormuz is completely clear.” When asked about how much damage is likely to be done to the reputation of states like Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Sir Robin said: “I think the whole idea of this being a reliable region in which you can afford to invest would clearly be severely undermined. And I think that’s going to happen whatever the case is after this. The idea that this is a safe part of the world, if the Islamic regime remains in power after this war, people are going to be hedging constantly about the future of the Gulf. They are undoubtedly going to take a big hit.” I will only reveal these bits of Sir Robin’s interview. However, there’s a lot more in the interview about Donald Trump’s thinking and strategy, the nature of his relationship with Israel, what would happen if on Saturday, when his 5-day pause ends, Trump attempts to obliterate Iran’s power plants and Iran strikes out at Gulf energy infrastructure, desalination plants and tries to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. There’s also a lot in the interview about the troops Trump is sending to the Middle East, any attempt Trump might make to put boots on the ground in Kharg island as well as the oil price and at what level it would become a serious problem for Trump. All of that I will leave you to see for yourself. Join The Wire's Youtube Membership and get exclusive content, member-only emojis, live interaction with The Wire's founders, editors and reporters and much more. Memberships to The Wire Crew start at Rs 89/month. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChWtJey46brNr7qHQpN6KLQ/join

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